Coffee prices are confounding

SAO PAULO, Aug 26, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) — Volatile international and local coffee prices are confounding buyers and sellers in Brazil this week. December coffee on ICE Futures U.S., the most active contract, soared 5.80 cents, or 3.5%, to $1.7240 on Thursday as funds renewed buying after the market had plunged 12.4% this week. Coffee prices has been moving very fast and it is difficult for many roasters abroad to react quickly to the volatility, said John Wolthers, a trader at coffee exporter Comexim in Santos, a Brazilian port city that is a key juncture in the export trade. In Brazil–the world’s top coffee producer–bean prices are attractive for the producers, but roasters are cautious of paying the high prices or premiums, Wolthers said. In Brazil’s spot market, good-quality arabica coffee, which allows for defects in some of the beans, was trading at between 315 Brazilian reals ($179) and BRL320 per 60-kilogram bag on Thursday. This compared to BRL310 per bag on Wednesday. Despite the arrival on the market of a new coffee crop from Brazil–with 2010 to 2011 set to be a high production year in the biennial arabica cycle–short-term supply problems continue to stimulate a drawing down of world stocks. The International Coffee Organization said that the bumper crop of 54.6 million bags being harvested in Brazil, will be just enough to meet demand. But world coffee prices will likely remain firm due to tight nearby supplies, Nestor Osorio, ICO executive director said. These are certainly strange times for coffee buyers and sellers alike. A trader at export company Swiss Coffee House in Santos said that buyers and sellers in Brazil never imagined that prices would rise this high with Brazil expecting a bumper coffee crop. Nobody knows in which direction prices will go, so people are cautious, he said. Moreover, although producers in Brazil have managed to sell small volumes of coffee on Thursday as prices rose, they often struggled to agree on the price or premiums with buyers, the trader said. For instance, discounts for a good quality arabica coffee Thursday saw sellers looking for 22-25 points under the December contract on ICE. Buyers, however, wanted to pay 28-30 points under the same contract. With a large spread like this, getting an agreement is difficult, he said.

Coffee Futures Reach a 12-year high

Coffee prices jumped to a fresh 12-year high on Monday morning as speculative interest in the soft commodity ratcheted up on the back of tightness in the physical markets. A disappointing harvest last year in central and south America has squeezed the market more than usual at the traditionally tightest period of the year, drawing down global inventories and sending stocks certified for delivery to the ICE exchange to their lowest in 10 years. That pushed the price of Arabica coffee – the high-quality variety prized by espresso lovers – up 1.9 per cent to $1.8865 a pound for December delivery on ICE, the highest since September 1997. Traders and analysts said the futures market was being dominated by funds that had been encouraged by the tight situation in the physical coffee market to bet on even higher prices. “At present, the New York futures market is heavily dominated by non-commercials, who are attracted by the bullish story behind Arabicas and the declining ICE stocks,” said Kona Haque, agricultural commodities analyst at Macquarie. The price rises in the futures markets are already beginning to affect the price of a cup of coffee. Earlier this month JM Smucker, which distributes the Dunkin’ Donuts, Millstone and Folgers coffee brands to US retailers, said it would increase its prices by 9 per cent. Kraft has also raised the price of its popular Maxwell House brand. Robusta coffee, the lower-quality variety used mainly for instant coffee, has also risen sharply in price. Liffe December robusta gained 2.6 per cent to a peak of $1,838 a tonne on Monday morning, just short of a two-year high. Prices may ease later in the year as the new crop of high-quality Arabica from Colombia and other countries in central and south America comes to market from October. But some are betting that the La Niña weather phenomenon, which is expected to strengthen throughout the year, will disrupt next year’s coffee production, creating further tightness in the market. In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee grower, the effect of La Niña could be to delay the onset of rains, before producing a deluge when the rains finally come – either of which could stress the coffee crop and reduce yields. Moreover, next year is an “off” year in the Brazilian crop’s biennial production cycle, meaning output is likely to be significantly lower than this year’s bumper harvest. “With prices likely to start anticipating Brazil’s 2011-12 ‘off’ year within a few months, and with the stock cover situation much less than comfortable, prices are likely to remain supported for a while still,” Ms Haque said.

Burundi Coffee Output May Be 26% Below Forecast After Drought

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) — Coffee production in Burundi, which relies on the crop for half its export earnings, may be as much as 26 percent less than forecast this year after a drought cut yields, the industry regulator said.

Output may be 23,000 to 25,000 metric tons, compared with an earlier estimate of 31,000 tons, Jeremie Ndikumana, a marketing officer at the Burundi Coffee Regulatory Authority, known as Ocibu, said in an interview on Aug. 13 from the capital, Bujumbura. The revised forecast is four times higher than the 6,000 tons produced last year.

Yields were lower than anticipated because some coffee trees didn’t fully recover from last year’s drought in the Central African country, he said.

Production slumped in 2009 from 25,000 tons a year earlier because of the drought. Output had risen in 2008 after a 15-year insurgency ended when rebel fighters signed peace accords with the government.

At least 11,392 tons of green beans, or half the revised projection, was processed by Aug. 8, Ndikumana said. Fully washed coffee accounted for 3,946.4 tons, while the rest was semi-washed coffee, he said.

Burundi consumes less than 3 percent of its coffee, which is reaped from March to July, and exports the rest. Agriculture generates about 44 percent of economic output in the East African country, according to the African Development Bank.

Rwanda Aims for 26,000-Ton Coffee Harvest on Favorable Weather

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) — Rwanda aims to achieve its coffee output forecast of 26,000 metric tons this season following “positive results” with most of the crop harvested, said Alex Kanyankole, managing director of the Rwanda Coffee Development Authority.    Field reports indicate that the harvest, which started in April, “has yielded a better crop,” Kanyankole said today by phone from the capital, Kigali. “We are optimistic that we shall achieve our target,” he said.    The projection is 8.3 percent higher than the 24,000 tons the country produced last year because of more rain, Kanyankole said. It’s lower than an initial projection of 27,000 tons, which was revised after earlier field reports, he added.

The central-east African nation produces the arabica variety of coffee beans. Rwanda plans to boost coffee production to 40,000 tons a year by 2011 through wider planting and improved farming techniques, Kanyankole said in an earlier interview.

Speculators continue to drive volatile trade

NEW YORK, Aug 04, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) — Coffee prices rose Wednesday from recent losses as speculators continued to drive volatile trade. Nearby coffee for September delivery 3.10 cent, or 2%, higher at $1.6975 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. Coffee prices have rallied 23% since June. Both fundamental and technical factors are driving the market, but fund interest seems to be the main catalyst in recent choppy trade. World supplies of high-quality arabica coffee beans are tight after two years of poor harvests in Colombia and Central America. Though a bumper crop is flowing in from Brazil, there is indecision in the market as to whether those beans will be of sufficient quality to meet market demand. Available premium arabica supplies are tight, particularly ahead of the late fall harvest in the main origins of that coffee. In the meantime, fund traders are pushing prices. “Funds are looking for something to happen,” said Sterling Smith, market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn. “Perhaps a major setback in production.” September coffee is establishing a new range from $1.60 to $1.80, Smith said. “Prices can stay in this box for a very, very long time,” he said. ICE coffee open interest–the number of active positions left at the end of the session–decreased by 2,794 lots Tuesday to total 166,182 lots, according to exchange data. Volume was estimated at 21,436 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 8,980 calls and 1,983 put options traded. ICE Change Range Sep $1.6975 +3.10 pts $1.6760-$1.7170 Dec $1.7085 +3.20 pts $1.6850-$1.7270

Nepal Coffee Production Increases by 10 percent

KATHMANDU (Commodity Online) : Nepal’s tea and coffee production increased by ten and twelve percent respectively during the last fiscal, according to National Tea and Coffee Development Board.

In a statement issued here NTCDB said it has started registration of coffee entrepreneurs as it will help the development of country’s coffee sector as a whole.

With coffee directives in place, the country can export coffee worth $30,000 without any Letter of Credit, added the statement.
The directives have a facility for five-year tax holiday for the coffee industry.

Meanwhile, Nepali Coffee is in the final stages to get its logo registration done in the country.

Due to a delay in the logo registration of domestic tea and coffee in Nepal, they are fighting for their existence in the international market although it has high demand abroad.

After two years of hard work, NTCDB has been assured of getting Nepali Coffee logo registered here. The logo registration has been pending for a long time affecting its registration in the international market. Nepali Tea logo has been registered in Nepal.

Saving Sumatran Tigers

With fewer than 400 individuals surviving in the wild, the Sumatran tiger continues to find refuge in Indonesia’s Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park, a World Heritage Site on the southern tip of Sumatra Island. But the critically endangered feline’s habitat is rapidly shrinking. Illegal squatters have already converted nearly 20 percent of the 900,000-acre (356,000-hectare) park to farmland for the cultivation of coffee, pepper and other crops. And a large post-tsunami influx of immigrant settlers from the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra has only increased pressures on the resource-rich protected area.

Construction Workers

Despite government efforts to evict as many as 15,600 families who have built semipermanent homes within the park, the influx continues, endangering not only the Sumatran tiger but a number of other wildlife species including the Sumatran rhino and the Sumatran elephant — three of the world’s most endangered mammals. The animals’ dwindling and increasingly fragmented habitat has only fueled incidents of confrontations with humans and opportunities for poachers.

“Without effective law enforcement, encroachment into the park will continue to destroy animal habitat,” explains Rainforest Alliance project coordinator Qori Nilwan Ishaq. “But law enforcement alone is not enough. The people living in this area need an incentive to conserve the park’s biodiversity.”

In partnership with WWF — which has been driving attention to the problem since the organization’s 2007 investigation that found farmers were growing coffee on more than 111,200 acres (45,000 hectares) of park land to produce over 19,600 tons of coffee annually — the Rainforest Alliance has been helping to support coffee farmers and traders as well as local institutions and organizations through the promotion of sustainable coffee production. Sustainably farmed beans are not only better for the environment, but they often yield a higher price for the farmer.

Woman

Many of the squatters within the park boundaries inefficiently cultivate low-quality coffee, which fetches minimal prices. By buying sustainably farmed beans from coffee growers outside of the park boundaries companies can provide an economic incentive that can help prevent further encroachment in the park. Kraft Foods and ECOM — the world’s third largest coffee trader — are supporting the Rainforest Alliance’s work on Sumatra.

“The Rainforest Alliance is not specifically working to stop encroachment of coffee farmers into the park,” explains project coordinator Qori Nilwan Ishaq. “But we’re working to make sure that coffee farmers and traders on the park border comply with the Rainforest Alliance Certified guidelines.” Since the project started, one group of farmers has earned certification and is enlarging its group, while another trader’s group has recently completed an audit. And there are new applications from other traders, which would engage an even larger number of small farmers –- each of them smaller than two acres (under one hectare) on average.

Forest Floor

To qualify for Rainforest Alliance certification, the farmers are learning to make compost naturally and to interplant their coffee with other plants including ginger, elephant grass and fruit trees, which can help to slow down erosion. They are also eliminating their use of certain herbicides such as paraquat, while reducing their use of agrichemicals overall.

Farmers in the certification program are increasing their coffee yields and getting a better price for their coffee. According to Ishaq, “Biodiversity is maintained and farmers are benefiting economically. This gives squatters the incentive to move outside the park boundaries.” Already deforested land is available outside the park.

Indonesian Specialty Coffee Auction 2010


On October 9-10th, 2010 the Specialty Coffee Association of Indonesia (SCAI) will hold the first-ever auction of Indonesia’s best Arabica specialty coffees.

Farmers’ cooperatives and exporters from across Indonesia are preparing small lots of top quality coffee for the auction. These coffees are traceable to single origins and carefully selected for their aroma and flavor. Coffees from Aceh Gayo, Lintong, Sidikilang, Java, Flores, Toraja and Papua are expected to enter. Many of the coffees will be certified Rainforest Alliance, Organic or Fair Trade. Single origin Luwak coffees will also be featured.

This will be the first time that many of these coffees have been offered for sale, making the auction a unique opportunity for international coffee buyers.

The day before the auction, all the coffees entered in the auction will be “cupped” by a panel of Indonesian and international judges. The international judges have already confirmed their participation. The numerical scores from the cupping will be presented at the auction to inform the bidders.

The auction will be held at the Bali Kopi House in Denpasar Bali, following the International Coffee Science Association (ASIC) meeting, October 3-8th 2010.

ASIC participants, including the world’s top coffee importers and researchers will be invited to attend the judging and auction.

Following the auction, the winning bid prices will be widely announced, creating favorable publicity for Indonesia and its coffees. This will be done through coffee industry trade publications, as well as international travel and airline magazines.

As the “coffee culture” that began in the U.S. and Europe expands throughout Asia, there is strong interest about the people who grow fine coffee and the countries where it is produced. The auction offers an opportunity to tell the story of Indonesian coffee to the world.

Benefits of sponsorship

· Exposure to the world’s top coffee researchers, importers and roasters who will attend and participate in the auction.

 

· Favorable publicity in the Indonesian media, through the media partner i.e Top Airlines Magazine, Food & Beverages Magazine,Jakarta Globe , and other national publications. The auction will be newsworthy because it is the first time a public coffee auction has been held in Indonesia and record prices are expected for these small lots of rare coffee.

 

· International publicity through airline and travel magazines. SCAI will prepare a photographic article highlighting the scenic beauty

and cultural heritage of each origin represented in the auction. The auction and article will link the sponsor’s name to the best Indonesia coffee and exciting tourist destinations like Lake Toba, Bali, Toraja and Flores.

The Organizers :

The Specialty Coffee Association of Indonesia (SCAI) is a registered Indonesian NGO with 93 members representing the entire Arabica coffee industry. SCAI members include more than 50 coffee farmers’ cooperatives with 40.000 farmer members, as well as exporters, coffee retailers, importers, research institutions and equipment manufacturers.

SCAI is holding this auction to showcase the coffees being grown by its members and to promote Indonesian coffee in the international marketplace.

SCAI has successfully managed several large events, including the 2009 Indonesia Barista Championship and the Coffee Quality Symposium.

Bali Kopi House has kindly offered to provide their restaurant and training room for the judging and auction and their Warehouse for coffee Auction’s store.   This beautiful facility is decorated with objects and art showcasing Indonesia’s 350 years as one of the premier coffee producing regions in the world.

Mexico Tries to Boost Quality Coffee Output

Mexico is likely to produce 4.6 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2010/11 cycle, which will begin in October, 5 percent more than in the current season, Rodolfo Trampe, head of the national coffee association Amecafe told Reuters in an interview on Monday.
Along with the output boost, Amecafe is aiming to increase the amount of coffee labeled as specialty, organic, or sustainable to between 20 and 25 percent next year, up from just 7 percent of the coffee now produced nationwide.
Mexico has fallen behind some of its Central American neighbors, like Guatemala and Costa Rica, which have worked to bring up the traceable quality of their coffee in order to tap international buyers willing to pay a premium for top-end beans.
“We don’t buy coffee from farms in Mexico because its hard to find coffee with guaranteed high quality,” Starbucks representative Alfredo Casas said at an event in Mexico City on Friday where Amecafe launched its new certification initiative.
To raise standards, Mexico is partnering with U.S.-based organization Quality Coffee Institute to implement a system to certify different types of beans under its “Q Coffee” label.
“In Mexico we’ve lost the ability to distinguish between good and bad coffee. The certification process will give us more access to international markets,” Francisco Piedragil, a coffee farmer and head of the coffee council in the southern state of Guerrero, told Reuters at the event.
Mexico’s coffee production has been declining since the beginning of the decade when prices plummeted on a glut in global supply.
Coffee prices have rebounded since then and Mexico wants to edge into niche markets where growers can make long-term contracts with buyers to shield themselves from some of the market’s volatility.
Certifying a significant chunk of Mexico’s coffee with a quality seal could earn the industry an additional $80 million a year, Amecafe consultant Manuel Diaz said. The international market for specialty coffees is growing 20 percent each year, he added.
Mexico’s 2009/10 coffee crop is seen at 4.4 million 60-kg bags, down from the previous cycle after suffering from a cold snap near the end of last year.
Recent rains from tropical storms that have battered parts of Mexico’s coast do not appear to have had a serious impact on the coffee crop, Rene Avila, an operations coordinator at Amecafe, said at Friday’s event.
“We hope that despite the rains … there will be good production,” Avila told Reuters, referring to the 2010/11 season.

Ethiopia power outages cause manufacturing firms to declare loss

Since the introduction of electric power shedding in March this year, the impacts of power outage are strongly affecting major business entities and smallholdings across the nation. In the past three months the country has been facing electric power outage due to the dwindling water level in dams, which are the dominant source of hydroelectric power.

A number of manufacturing companies are expected to declare loss for the current fiscal year due to the power outages and power cuts that have entailed scaling down and stoppage of production, according to industry observers.

Scores of large, medium and small-scale manufacturing enterprises and other businesses affected by the power interruption have already declared loss for the month of May, during which time the Ethiopian Electric and Power Corporation (EEPCo) disconnected a number of manufacturing plants from the nation grid, according to sources from the Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority.

The power shedding has also affected the overall economy. Just this week, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told The Financial Times that the power outages have trimmed the country’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year by close to one percentage point to 10.1 percent. Despite the IMF’s 6.5 percent GDP growth projection for the country, the government had earlier on projected an 11.2 percent growth.

Aside losses in revenues, profits and taxes, the power interruption was expected to result in substantial job cuts as manufacturing enterprises stop production. Fortunately, the power cut has not induced significant layoffs, at least so far. “One of the biggest fear was there will be more and more job cuts,” Kassahun Follo, president of the Confederation of Ethiopian Trade Unions (CETU) told The Reporter. “But there is not much layoff observed in connection to the power shedding.”

“There are 562 companies and enterprises who are members of CETU, including state-owned enterprises,” Kassahun says. “Of these, only two are reported to have cut jobs while a few construction companies have sacked temporary workers due to shortage of cement emanating from the power cut. All the same, if the power crisis is not resolved in time, things may get worse.”

Although EEPCo officials are entreating the public to wait patiently until the dams get sufficient water this rainy season, they are also insisting that the problem will be solved when Gibe II starts