Colombia Will Produce 10 Million Bags of Coffee in 2011-12

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — Colombian coffee production will rise to 10 million bags in the season starting next month after rains cut output in the past three seasons, according to the country’s Coffee Growers’ Federation.

The crop in the 2010-11 season is expected to be 8.6 million to 8.7 million bags, said Luis Munoz, chief executive officer of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation. Each bag contains 60 kilograms (132 pounds) of beans. Production in the three previous seasons was smaller than the 12.5 million bags in 2007-08, data from the International Coffee Organization showed.

“If weather is normal, without El Nino or La Nina, Colombia’s production will easily reach 10 million bags,” Munoz said in an interview at the ICO offices in London today.

El Nino is a weather pattern of warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and La Nina is chracterized by cold temperatures in the area.

The coffee crop in the Andean nation will have fully recovered from the shortfalls by the 2012-13 season, Munoz said. Colombia plans to increase output to 14 million bags by 2015 through a replanting program to increase the yield, he said.

“We have replanted 80,000 hectares (197,684 acres) so far this year, 30,000 more than in the same period last year,” he said. “We have projected to reach 120,000 hectares by the end of this year,” he said, adding that the program would continue over the next four years.

Investments are also being made in training farmers, increasing the use of fertilizers and planting trees that are more resistant to climate change, he said.

$2 a Pound

Coffee prices are likely to remain above $2 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. as supplies remain tight, Munoz said, adding that supplies will be limited during the next five or six years as consumption rises.

“What we see in the fundamentals lead us to conclude that the market in New York has a new floor of $2 a pound,” he said. “While the market is still tight, there will be volatility.”

Consumption in Colombia grew about 1 percent in 2010 after 20 years of stability or even slowing usage, he said. The country plans to increase domestic demand by 30 percent in the next five years, he said.

Colombia is also focusing on sustainability, and 110,000 growers have some kind of certification label, Munoz said. That’s about 25 percent of the country’s growers and compares with only 4,000 certified producers five years ago, he said.

Brazil Coffee Crops May Start Flowering Next Week Amid Rain

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Coffee crops in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of the bean, may begin flowering next week as an expected cold front brings rainfall to producing areas.

Coffee-growing regions of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states, which account for about 58 percent of the nation’s crop, will get rain between Oct. 2 and Oct. 4, Somar Meteorologia weather forecaster Marco Antonio dos Santos said. The producing areas should get as much as 15 millimeters (0.6 inch) of rainfall, which is enough to set off flowering, he said.

“Trees are more than ready to start flowering,” Santos said today in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo. “All leads me to believe we are getting it all, a record crop and great quality of beans.”

Brazil should produce at least 58 million bags next year, Santos said. That compares with 43.1 million bags this year, according to a Sept. 13 forecast by the country’s crop research agency, Conab. The harvest of next year’s crop should start in May.

The intensity and extent of flowering is seen as a predictor of coffee output.

A bag of coffee weighs 60 kilos (132 pounds).

Questions over Ethiopia’s coffee crop

A lack of rain has led some farmers to rip out their entire crop, according to one charity, but experts disagree. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Coffee production in some parts of southern Ethiopia has come to a halt because of a lack of rain, according to a British NGO, although some coffee experts predict a bumper crop this year.

Plan UK is reporting that some coffee farmers have been forced to rip out their entire crop because of drought.

“We had too much rain continuing for three to four months, and this year we have had a long dry period so now we’re worried about the future,” said Mulugeta Tafa, a manager with children’s NGO Plan UK, in Ethiopia.

Tafa said five areas in the south, including Gedio – where some of Ethiopia’s highest quality coffee is produced – are struggling.

“Coffee production is grinding to a halt in some parts of southern Ethiopia, due to a serious lack of rain,” said Sarah Mace, disaster risk management specialist at Plan UK, who has just returned from the country.

“Some coffee farmers have been forced to rip out their entire crop because of the devastating impact of the weather. Many have watched their plants shrivel up and die before their eyes,” she said.

Ethiopia is the world’s seventh largest and Africa‘s top coffee producer. The value of Ethiopia’s coffee exports for 2009 was $316.7m (£202m), according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), the main intergovernmental body for coffee. Coffee accounts for 1.1% of Ethiopia’s GDP and is its largest source of foreign exchange, so any setback to coffee production has serious implications for the economy. Ethiopia has a GDP per capita of $358.

But Heleanna Georgalis, general manager of Moplaco, a coffee exporter based in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, expressed surprise at Plan’s reports of problems with this year’s coffee crop.

“In fact, the crop this year is going to be a huge one, one of the biggest the country has seen. However, it will mature a bit late since the rain has not stopped yet, so the berries have not had the time to ripen,” she said.

Georgalis said the drought in east Africa has affected pastoral lands rather than areas where coffee is grown, which are in the highlands and are less susceptible to drought.

Playing down the effects of drought on Ethopia, she added: “… for three months, it has been raining constantly all over the country as it is the rainy season. The coffee areas are well watered and there should be no concerns about such an event or crop reduction.

“Last year, the coffee cycle of Ethiopia was [cultivated] on the lower side, where the Sidamo region was heavily affected. Borena and Guji made up for the Sidamo crop reduction and produced excellent coffee. This year, the coffee cycle is on the higher side, and this time Borena’s crop is on the lower side.”

In July, Britain announced £38m in emergency food aid for 1.3 million people in Ethiopia affected by severe drought. Some 13.3 million people in east Africa have been affected by what has been described as the worst drought in 60 years. Somalia, where six regions have been declared to be famine zones, is the worst-hit country.

According to the latest statistics from the ICO, Ethiopian coffee exports in the period August to September came to 3.1m bags (60kg a bag), up from 2.7m bags for the same period last year. Britain is a big importer of Ethiopian coffee. In 2009 the UK imported 1.2m kilos. Last year, this had more than doubled to 3.1 million kg, according to Plan UK.

Climate change threatens cocoa production

Climate change will leave many of west Africa’s cocoa-producing areas too hot for chocolate, according to a study released last week.

More than half of the world’s chocolate comes from the cocoa plantations of Ghana and Ivory Coast, where hundreds of thousands of smallholder farmers supply lucrative fair-trade markets in developed countries.

But the new research by climate scientists at the Colombia-based International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT, by its Spanish acronym), said an expected annual temperature rise of more than two degrees celsius by 2050 will threaten cocoa production in west Africa.

The report anticipates that areas of cocoa suitability will begin to decline as soon as 2030, as average temperatures increase by one degree celsius. Warmer conditions mean the heat-sensitive cocoa trees will struggle to get enough water during the growing season, curtailing the development of cocoa pods, containing the cocoa bean – the key ingredient in chocolate production. The trees are expected to struggle as the region’s dry season becomes increasingly intense.

“Many of these farmers use their cocoa trees like ATM machines,” said CIAT’s Dr Peter Laderach, the report’s lead author. “They pick some pods and sell them to quickly raise cash for school fees or medical expenses. The trees play an absolutely critical role in rural life. We’re already seeing the effects of rising temperatures on cocoa crops currently produced in marginal areas, and with climate change these areas are certain to spread.

“At a time when global demand for chocolate is rising fast, particularly in China, there is already upward pressure on prices. It’s not inconceivable that this, combined with the impact of climate change, could cause chocolate prices to increase sharply.”

Rwanda coffee output to rise on Goverment Measures

Kigali. The Rwandan government has announced draconian measures targeting a 75-per cent increase to generate $60 million in coffee production by the year 2012.

However, the exploitation of this cash crop could become an economical cross to bear for several farmers from remote areas in the Central African nation.

Among other measures adopted, include a fine on coffee farmers who fail to tend their plantations properly,  and who fail to apply a commonly recommended fertilizer known as Nitrogen Phosphorous and Potassium (NPK), the director general of the National Agriculture Export Board (NAEB), Alex Kanyankore said.

Defaulting farmers would pay 100 Rwandan Francs ($0.16) per coffee tree, while any farmer who uproots a coffee tree to grow food crops will pay 500 francs ($0.83) for each uprooted tree.

The coffee sector employs 400,000 Rwandan farmers who maintain a total of 70 million trees in individual plots.
After harvest, NAEB buys farmers crops at prices ranging from 200 to 300 Francs ($0.34-51) per kilogram.
Rwanda intends to increase annual coffee production from 16 to 26 tonnes by the year 2012.

Coffee production, which in 1998 was only 14 tonness has been constantly increasing. However NAEB says despite current efforts (to boost coffee production), the current level is still below the level attained before the 1994 genocide (43 tonnes).

Rwanda has also decided to plant 4.3 million new trees as it replaces the old ones.

In 2010, one of the country’s Agriculture Research Institutes based in Rubona, a village 100 kilometers in the south, introduced a technique to multiply coffee seedlings that resist bacteria and which can produce a higher yield to generate a higher turnover for poor small-scale farmers.

Rwanda’s ministry of Agriculture emphasises to make premium coffee- growing national priority since the crop has always achieved an international recognition. (Xinhua)

Farmers raise red flag over coffee theft

Monday
August 22,  2011

According to Kenya Coffee Producers and Traders Association which runs the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, coffee beans last week averaged $480 for 50 kilo bag of grade AA, and $310 for other grades. 

High international coffee prices against declining production of the crop has set-off a series of theft incidents in coffee growing areas.
The most affected areas are Central Kenya and parts of Kisii where a watchman was killed at Nyabonge factory over the weekend and 50 bags of coffee stolen.

In Kiambu, Gathage, Nembu, Thiririka and Muhara coffee factories have lost a combined amount of 80 bags in recent weeks.

The regulator, Coffee Board of Kenya said they had sent an alert, reminding farmers of measures that they need to take to curb thefts.
“There is a concern even by the insurance companies about the increasing level of losses,” said the CBK managing director, Ms Loise Njeru.

She said the regulator had prepared a ministerial statement over the matter, with the intention of enlisting support from various government administration officers.

The MD said coffee thefts had increased because the second crop, normally characterised by low production was at its peak.

According to Kenya Coffee Producers and Traders Association which runs the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, coffee beans last week averaged $480 for 50 kilo bag of grade AA, and $310 for other grades.

The amount available for trading today is between 18,000 bags and 19,000 bags, and this is expected to decline to between 10,000 bags and 13,000 bags in the following week.

“The problem of coffee theft has worsened over the last few weeks and farmers are not sure that they will have any income from their sweat,’ said Francis Mara, the chairman of Gitwe coffee society in Kiambu.

Since the prices of coffee started improving, many factories in have been forced to increase security to prevent theft of their coffee beans that are in stores or are spread out to dry.

In March, Kenya Coffee Producers Association noted that the justice system and enforcement agencies seemed unable to deal with the cartel suspected to be behind the coffee theft.

It is estimated that coffee worth Sh40 million from various factories across the country was stolen from farms, stores, drying tables and in transit in 2010.

According to Coffee Board of Kenya, 1,216 bags of the beans were stolen between July and December 2010.

About 10,000 metric tonnes of coffee could not be accounted for last year and was suspected to have found its way out of the country through illegal channels.

Availability of excess milling capacity has brought with it competition among commercial millers, leading to some engaging in illegal activities to recoup investments and meet other financial obligations.

Some are reported to be buying coffee and marketing it as their produce.

“Millers, warehousemen and dealers must, at all times, insist on valid movement permits for all coffee received at their premises as a sign of authenticity, transparency and traceability,” the board said last year.

The woes facing Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, according to players, have left farmers in Western Kenya exposed to theft as they first have to accumulate large volumes of beans before transporting to millers as far as Central Kenya.

Big Mistake…

The Best Coffee for Your Brain

by Andrew Katz July 12, 2011, 05:47 am EDT

Coffee addicts rejoice: You don’t have a problem, you have a healthy habit. (We know you can quit whenever you want.)

Skip the decaf. Coffee might help protect against Alzheimer’s disease—as long as it’s the caffeine-loaded kind.

When researchers at the University of South Florida gave mice that were bred to imitate Alzheimer’s disease either caffeinated coffee, decaf, or straight caffeine, they found that the regular coffee increased the levels of a brain-boosting hormone—which reduced symptoms of the disease.

This hormone, granulocyte colony stimulating factor, spurs the production of new neurons and creates connections between existing ones, says Gary Arendash, Ph.D., professor at the Florida Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, and co-author of the study. Alzheimer’s patients are known to have low levels of the hormone.

But decaf won’t cut it. “The link was only found in caffeinated coffee, not in decaf,” says Arendash. “There seems to be a mystery component of coffee that mixes with the caffeine to protect against Alzheimer’s, but we haven’t figured out the details,” he adds. Researchers believe that drinking caffeinated coffee daily can help protect against the disease, or at least delay its onset.

Arendash says the key is the amount of coffee you take in, and recommends four cups of drip coffee each day—spread out until about 4 p.m. to avoid a caffeine crash. He cautions that only drip coffee was studied and that another form like instant might lead to different results—even taking away the benefits altogether.

But remember, everyone reacts differently to caffeine, so listen to how your body reacts and drink less if you need to. “If it causes heart palpitations, muscle tremors, or sleep problems, then you should cut back,” says Kathryn Wilson, an epidemiology research fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health.

With that, Wilson suggests the healthiest way to down a cup-a-Joe is plain ol’ black. “Coffee on its own has almost no calories, and drinking regular coffee with one packet of sugar or a splash of milk (even whole milk or cream) still isn’t bad,” she adds


Coffee Prices Plummet to Six-Month Low

Coffee Prices Plummet to Six-Month Low

Andrea Tse

07/28/11 – 01:28 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Coffee prices slid to a six-month low Thursday on concerns about excess supply amid favorable weather conditions in Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer.

September Arabica coffee futures hit a six-month low of $2.3720 a pound Thursday before paring losses. The contract was falling 0.7% to $2.3945 a pound Thursday afternoon.

“Expectations are that weather there should remain mostly favorable for the ongoing coffee harvest through early August,” said PFGBest commodity analyst Robin Rosenberg. No frost will be reaching Brazil’s main coffee growing areas over the next two weeks, according to the latest weather forecasts.

Rabobank analyst Luke Chandler said coffee prices have returned close to the prefrost lows reached in June, despite a reluctance from producers to sell at these levels.

“This week coffee continued to trade to the downside,” said Rosenberg. But “nearing the bottom Bollinger band [a technical tool for traders], the market is about to be tested.” While the analyst notes that coffee futures remain weak with the ongoing harvest pressure, he expects to see major support coming in at the $2.03 area.

Contributing to excess supply concerns was the Guatemalan National Coffee Association’s report that Latin American exports of mild, washed Arabica Coffee beans rose 5.6% to 2.46 million 60 kilo bags in June from a year ago; and the prediction by India’s state-run coffee board that the country’s coffee production will increase about 7% to 322,250 tons the next marketing year — with the majority of the increase attributable to higher production of the high-quality and popular Arabica beans. There are also expectations of large crops in Vietnam in the Fall.

“Coffee industry executives have been attempting to talk the market up — again,” Rosenberg said of the falling coffee bean prices. “Some things never change. A top Brazilian official stated that coffee prices should recover some of their recent losses as the global balance of supply and demand remains delicate…If the situation were delicate coffee would be trading much higher than it is today,” says Rosenberg.

From a 12-month and year-to-date standpoint, coffee prices have soared, rising more than 40% and 1% respectively.

Kenya coffee agency warns thrips could hit crop

* Thrips thrive in dry weather , rain could help

* Attack likely to worsen after cold season

By Mark Denge

NAIROBI, July 1 (Reuters) – Thrips, tiny insect pests that are hard to detect, may attack Kenya’s coffee farms this year and cut output, state-owned Coffee Research Foundation (CRF) of Kenya said on Friday.

Kenya is a relatively small grower but its specialty beans are famous for their high quality and are valued for blending with those from other countries.

The east African nation’s coffee crop is susceptible to pests and to diseases such as Coffee Berry Disease, which attacks during the June-July window when temperatures are low.

The foundation warned farmers that the new attack by thrips is likely to worsen when the cold season is over, probably in August. It did not say how much of the crop could be lost.

“The thrips have a potential to destroy crop though farmers may find it difficult to detect their presence due to their tiny nature,” Joseph Kimemia, director of research at Kenya’s Coffee Research Foundation (CRF) told Reuters.

“The tiny insects suck juices from the coffee leaves causing them to turn pale and we urge growers to be on the look out for such symptoms as well.”

Attacks by the green scales infestation and Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR) disease are also likely to increase, the agency warned.

“If we could get some rains over the coffee growing areas in the coming weeks the effect of the thrips attacks could be mitigated because the insects thrive in dry weather. The rains could wash them off the crop leaves,” the agency said.

In the 2007/08 crop year, a major bout of the Coffee Berry Disease cut Kenya’s output by 23 percent to 42,000 tonnes.

The industry regulator, Coffee Board of Kenya (CBK), said it was monitoring crop in key growing areas for CBD.

“There have been no serious cases of CBD attack so far but we are closely monitoring the situation,” Loise Njeru, managing director at CBK told Reuters.

The CRF in 2010 unveiled a new coffee variety named Batian that is resistant to the two worst diseases plaguing the crop.

Researchers estimate Batian could cut production costs by up to 30 percent due to its ability to resist Coffee Leaf Rust and Coffee Berry Disease.

The Agriculture Ministry expects the country’s coffee export earnings to rise by 5-10 percent in the 2010/11 season due to good prices and improved output.

Separately, the operators of the country’s weekly auction said on Friday they did not plan a sale next week.

“We shall skip next week’s sale but revert back to the normal weekly calendar in the successive weeks,” Issac Muchomba, the secretary of the Kenya Coffee Traders Association (KCTA) that runs the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE),told Reuters.

“Though crop levels are still low we hope to do with little supplies that are coming through to sustain a weekly sale.” (Editing by George Obulutsa and Anthony Barker) (For more Reuters Africa coverage and to have your say on the top issues, visit: af.reuters.com/)

Brazil May Have a Record Coffee Crop Next Season

Brazil May Have a Record Coffee Crop Next Season, Somar Says

By Isis Almeida – Jul 27, 2011

The coffee crop in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of the commodity, may reach a record next season on favorable climate conditions, according to weather forecaster Somar Meteorologia.

“The possibility of a record harvest next year is very big,” agronomist Marco Antonio dos Santos said in a report e- mailed yesterday. “Rains this year should return within the normal period, September.”

Production in the South American country will fall to 43.5 million bags in the current season, down from 48.1 million bags the previous crop year, as trees enter the lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle, the agriculture ministry estimates.

Dry weather this month will be good for the flowering period in the second half of September, he said.

There are no forecasts for rains in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-producing state, and conditions should continue to favor the current season’s harvesting activities in the next few days, Somar said.

While the 2011-12 season starts in October in most countries, the crop in Brazil is already under way.

As much as 65 percent of this season’s crop has already been picked in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, while field works have covered more than 70 percent in Parana, Santos estimates.

The quality of the beans harvested is “very good,” while the size is slightly smaller in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, he said. This could result in lower productivity, as more beans will be needed to fill a 60-kilogram bag, he added.

To contact the reporter on this story: Isis Almeida in London at email hidden; JavaScript is required